missing plane

[JonathanRyan]

Read your Sherlock Holmes The likely stuff isn't working. Most of the other theories are impossible. An unlikely one might cover it.

As for where it is.....I believe the suggestion is that they are looking in the wrong place. Or rather looking in too big a place to search effectively.

Aaaargh. Of all the worthy Sherlock Holmes stuff you can by, why does skimwords link to that awful film? Even the terrible Elementary is better.

 

[big soft moose]

Hijacked would explain the weird flight decisions - especially if it were a 9/11 style hijack and the flight crew were killed leaving amateurs flying the plane. what happened next would be up for grabs but crashed it somewhere through inexpert handling would be a reasonable guess

As to why no one has claimed responsibility there are two options a) the entire cell concerned were on the plane and as they crashed it theres no one left to claim anything, or b) as someone mentioned earlier it was a rehersal for a more hi profile target (like hijacking an american jet over the antlantic) being carried out on a country with relatively lax security.

But this is just conjecture - don't know means don't know , we won't know anything conclusive until wreckage is found and maybe not even then

 

[JonathanRyan]

As to why no one has claimed responsibility there are two options a) the entire cell concerned were on the plane and as they crashed it theres no one left to claim anything, or b) as someone mentioned earlier it was a rehersal for a more hi profile target (like hijacking an american jet over the antlantic) being carried out on a country with relatively lax security.

Also, if I were a terrorist, what would spread more terror? (1) bringing down a plane or (2) making a plane vanish so completely that everybody in the world spent a long time looking for it?

If I were an evildoer and could make planes vanish, I wouldn't waste time bragging about it.

 

[Yv]

All we know for sure is that it climbed to an extreme altitude and somehow the crew did not or could not send out any kind of Mayday.
Even the change in course seems a bit uncertain.

hmmm... see, this is where all the info is so confused and why speculation is rife, because everything I have seen/heard so far indicates the change of direction is now pretty certain but the change of altitude is questionable in both its extreme and even whether it actually happened at all.

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

Who would he call to? If he had signed off from atc he was presumably out of controlled airspace. So maybe he did make a mayday call but his radio was not working due to the damage to the electrical systems or there was simply no one who was in range to hear it.

 

[archangel]

Off on a tangent......if you actually had information to the where abouts of the plane...you would need to be very careful who you reported it to....a lot of back room politics and alliances and not to mention about a possible visit from the men in black (Not Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones)

 

[Yv]

Who would he call to? If he had signed off from atc he was presumably out of controlled airspace. So maybe he did make a mayday call but his radio was not working due to the damage to the electrical systems or there was simply no one who was in range to hear it.

I would be VERY surprised if the ONLY form of mayday signal available on an aircraft was a verbal radio signal. As we now know, an aircraft has all manner of different ways it communicates with base.

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

I would be VERY surprised if the ONLY form of mayday signal available on an aircraft was a verbal radio signal. As we now know, an aircraft has all manner of different ways it communicates with base.

Johnathonryan linked to a theory, someone else BSM? questioned why a call had not been made (or received). My post was in response to this.

As it happens, I fly with a recently retired airline pilot, his theory is very similar to the one johnathan linked to.

 

[Yv]

Johnathonryan linked to a theory, someone else BSM? questioned why a call had not been made (or received). My post was in response to this.

As it happens, I fly with a recently retired airline pilot, his theory is very similar to the one johnathan linked to.

I know what you were responding to and in fairness, I fully expect the final outcome of all this to be something along those lines anyway. I was merely saying that I too find it odd that no mayday signal of any description was sent in this scenario as I would assume aircraft have more than one way to send such a signal, with back up systems taking electrical issues into account for such emergencies.

 

[big soft moose]

Who would he call to? If he had signed off from atc he was presumably out of controlled airspace. So maybe he did make a mayday call but his radio was not working due to the damage to the electrical systems or there was simply no one who was in range to hear it.

I would have thought he'd have called to the control of the feild he was heading to - if it was close enough for him to think he could reach it with an uncontrolled fire on board , then it would have to be within radio range

Most of the pilots i know fly millitary jets so its possible I have in inflated idea of the range an aircraft set can reach to - but surely a 777 must have some modern tech communications gear capable of long range or via satelite transmission

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

surely a 777 must have some modern tech communications gear capable of long range or via satelite transmission

I don't know what the range of their radios is, and like I said, perhaps the radio was not working. I based this on the comment that Chris goodfellow said in his theory...

<snip>
"For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations."
<snip>

 

[big soft moose]

<snip>
"For me, the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense in a fire. And there most likely was an electrical fire. In the case of a fire, the first response is to pull the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses, the plane would go silent. It probably was a serious event and the flight crew was occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, navigate, and lastly, communicate is the mantra in such situations."
<snip>

Yeah I saw that - the basic problem is "and there most likely was an electrical fire" was there ? why, what is he basing that on ? - to me in looks like circular logic, the plane went dark, therefore there must have been a fire (false assumption), and a fire would explain the plane going dark (it would but its not the only possible reason)

Even if we accept that there was a fire in the wheel well (as he prmulgates) is it really likely that a fire would spread from a wheel well to the electrics fast enough to necessitate pulling all the breakers before you could go 'holy crap we're on fire' ( surely you'd call a mayday as soon as you realised you were on fire, before it became an electrical fire )

Also if you pulled the breakers then restored power one by one, wouldn't you prioritise the important ones, like the comms gear, transponder etc - if that had happened the plane would have gone silent, then lit back up as switches were flicked on and off

and are they seriously telling us that a jet as complex as the 777 doesn't have back up power to its radios - the use of Aviate, navigate, communicate is also a bit disingenous, because that mantra lays out the three things you absolutely need to do in an emergency - keep it flying, work out where you are going to put it down, let someone know

 

[JonathanRyan]

People make mistakes though.

Doesn't matter how experienced the pilot was and how good his training, the chances are that this was the first time that anything like this had happened to him.

Isn't there some story about a very experienced pilot crashing a plane because he shut down the engine that wasn't on fire? Hard to say what people will do in a stressful situation.

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

If I had an emergency in the air the last thing I would do is call for assistance or to let anyone know.
There's nothing anyone outside of the aircraft (regardless of its type) can do to help.

But maybe you are right. After all, we are ALL only speculating. Having said that, At least Chris goodfellow is speaking from a position of experience, we are not.

 

[big soft moose]

If I had an emergency in the air the last thing I would do is call for assistance or to let anyone know.
There's nothing anyone outside of the aircraft (regardless of its type) can do to help.
.

really - you wouldn't want to alert SAR that you might be going to ditch , you wouldn't want the airfield you were heading to (while on fire and without landing gear if mr goodfellow is to correct) to be prepared to roll the crash vehicles , foam the runway and such , you wouldn't want ATC to move other aeroplanes off your new emergency flight path ?

 

[neil_g]

Amongst all the wild theories, this one seems attractively simple

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

I certainly don't know enough about planes to find any holes in it.

It also starts with the obvious question "what would the pilot do if something disastrous happened?" and ends with a good place to point the crowd.

article makes some good sense.. i guess it'll all come to light eventually, even if it takes years.

 

[big soft moose]

Also with all due respect to Mr Goodfellow, while he does indeed have more experience than you or I he is far from a definitive expert - his bio just says 20 years experience of muti engine - has he ever flown a 777, has he ever flown for Maylasian airways , does he know what their emergency procedures are ? - in short what makes him more qualified to decide what went wrong than the people actually directing the SAR .

Surely checking heading to primary divert feilds from the last known position would have been one of te first things malaysian airways / maylasian ATC did - its quite possible that they've already thought of this and ruled it out. If it took mt goodfellow all of 30 seconds to find it on google earth, surely the other pilots at MA who regularly fly in the area would be aware of it.

 

[boyfalldown]

I have no idea if Mr Goodfellow is in the right ball park or not, however his article does seem to make more sense, and be a little more compelling then the various wild (and even the not so wild) terrorist theories there seem to be floating around at the moment

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

really - you wouldn't want to alert SAR that you might be going to ditch , you wouldn't want the airfield you were heading to (while on fire and without landing gear if mr goodfellow is to correct) to be prepared to roll the crash vehicles , foam the runway and such , you wouldn't want ATC to move other aeroplanes off your new emergency flight path ?

Yes Really! As I said, for me it would be the last thing I would do, but I would do it. Not until I had dealt with the fire though! You seem to have mis-understood me.

Off topic I know but I don't need - or want - a runway, have a look at my avatar!

 

[Brian_of_Bozeat]

Also with all due respect to Mr Goodfellow, while he does indeed have more experience than you or I he is far from a definitive expert - his bio just says 20 years experience of muti engine - has he ever flown a 777, has he ever flown for Maylasian airways , does he know what their emergency procedures are ? - in short what makes him more qualified to decide what went wrong than the people actually directing the SAR .

There are rules of the air, like the rules of the road. If he is (or was) qualified to fly a commercial airliner then he will know the procedures that the pilots would have been trained to follow.

No one said he is more qualified than the Search co-ordinators, or that he is deciding what went wrong either, he is just speculating as are you and I, but I think his article makes more sense than a lot of the other stuff I've read.

Do you have a theory?

(edited 'cos my grammar is terrible)

 

[DorsetDude]

Ok everybody, time to relax for a bit and chill out before resuming the debate. Lets all have a bit of a sing-a-long, altogether now with a classic Barry Manilow:

"Bermuda triangle, look at it from my angle..."

 

[big soft moose]

Except that procedures vary with type - so someone who hasnt flown a 777 wouldnt necessarily be conversant with either procedures or possibilities in that type.

As to theories i still like the terrorism angle - hijacked with or without conivance of one or more crew members , flown well off course and crashed - perhjaps as arehersal for a higher profile event involving a more obvious target nation.

that said its all conjecture and speculation no one actually knows anything

 

[big soft moose]

Ok everybody, time to relax for a bit and chill out before resuming the debate. Lets all have a bit of a sing-a-long, altogether now with a classic Barry Manilow:

"Bermuda triangle, look at it from my angle..."

how about saxon - 747 (strangers in the night)

 

[Garry Edwards]

People make mistakes though.

Doesn't matter how experienced the pilot was and how good his training, the chances are that this was the first time that anything like this had happened to him.

Isn't there some story about a very experienced pilot crashing a plane because he shut down the engine that wasn't on fire? Hard to say what people will do in a stressful situation.

That will be the 737 that came down on the M1, many years ago, trying to make it to East Midlands. I know because I was one of the first people to get onto the plane, before the emergency services arrived.

But that was different.
1. He should have returned to Heathrow, he was told to go to East Midlands.
2. There was no flight engineer in the cockpit, the Company had decided that they were an unnecessary expense.
3. The controls were illogical and all over the place, the controls for the port engine were in the centre, the controls for the starboard engine were on the left.

The pilots were blamed for everything that happened, probably very unfairly.

 

[Garry Edwards]

really - you wouldn't want to alert SAR that you might be going to ditch , you wouldn't want the airfield you were heading to (while on fire and without landing gear if mr goodfellow is to correct) to be prepared to roll the crash vehicles , foam the runway and such , you wouldn't want ATC to move other aeroplanes off your new emergency flight path ?

You only have to listen to the mayday traffic for the plane that landed on the Hudson to know that it doesn't take long for an airport to make ready for an incoming emergency. I know nothing about flying planes, but logic says that communication wouldn't be the first priority. Again, listen to captain Sullenberger, talking to ATC. From memory it went something like this
OK, come in on runway one
Unable
**** (nearby airport) can take you
Unable
Where do you want to go?
It will have to be the Hudson

End of conversation, he had other things to do.

 

[boyfalldown]

That will be the 737 that came down on the M1, many years ago, trying to make it to East Midlands. I know because I was one of the first people to get onto the plane, before the emergency services arrived.

But that was different.
1. He should have returned to Heathrow, he was told to go to East Midlands.
2. There was no flight engineer in the cockpit, the Company had decided that they were an unnecessary expense.
3. The controls were illogical and all over the place, the controls for the port engine were in the centre, the controls for the starboard engine were on the left.

The pilots were blamed for everything that happened, probably very unfairly.

An aside, I drove through that spot with my dad maybe 4 minutes before he crashed on the motorway

 

[Garry Edwards]

An aside, I drove through that spot with my dad maybe 4 minutes before he crashed on the motorway

You were lucky. I was maybe 200 yards away, driving towards him, I thought at first it was a vehicle crashing through the central barrier and on fire, found out that it wasn't when I stopped.
Very strangely, all the media reported that there was no fire, but there was. 2 fire engines from East Midlands had driven across the fields and got there within maybe a minute, they put the fire out instantly and did a fantastic job. We then used their ladders to get onto the plane, which was on the embankment, it was nearly impossible in the pitch black and with the ground covered in foam. Got into the front but everyone was very dead, there were survivors, they were all in the back

 

[viv1969]

That will be the 737 that came down on the M1, many years ago, trying to make it to East Midlands. I know because I was one of the first people to get onto the plane, before the emergency services arrived.

But that was different.
1. He should have returned to Heathrow, he was told to go to East Midlands.
2. There was no flight engineer in the cockpit, the Company had decided that they were an unnecessary expense.
3. The controls were illogical and all over the place, the controls for the port engine were in the centre, the controls for the starboard engine were on the left.

The pilots were blamed for everything that happened, probably very unfairly.

Have to agree.
Had the pilot not have been as good at his job as he was, then many more people would have been killed, both on the 'plane and in Kegworth.

Seems odd maybe that everyone in the front section died whilst the pilot & first officer survived.

 

[boyfalldown]

Sadly, it now looks to be heading towards the ridiculous. Way to treat peoplehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26644085

 

[andya700]

I am not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but I wondered whether or not any of the passengers on this flight had tried to make a call by mobile phone at any time? Obviously we have no idea if they tried, and of course the logistics of doing so would depend where they were.
If the plane had flown on for between four and seven hours, then it would have been obvious to the other aircrew and passengers that something was wrong. If they were over land at any time, then they could have made a call - possibly.
On 9/11 the United Airlines flight 93 went down after a struggle between passengers and hijackers, and people on board that aircraft had used mobile phones.

 

[Yv]

The aftermath of that happened as Sky News were broadcasting live from there, it was utter pandemonium as the Malay police tried to secretly move those relatives from an anteroom and away to another part of the hotel. The scrum and chase from the press was pretty primal, though I guess it was the press the relatives wanted to see to make their protest so tough to call judgement on any of that part of it.

 

[Yv]

I am not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but I wondered whether or not any of the passengers on this flight had tried to make a call by mobile phone at any time? Obviously we have no idea if they tried, and of course the logistics of doing so would depend where they were.
If the plane had flown on for between four and seven hours, then it would have been obvious to the other aircrew and passengers that something was wrong. If they were over land at any time, then they could have made a call - possibly.
On 9/11 the United Airlines flight 93 went down after a struggle between passengers and hijackers, and people on board that aircraft had used mobile phones.

no, nothing from mobile phones, or rather, nothing that any relatives or friends received, and if the authorities traced anything, they are not saying. It is one of the 'unanswered questions' about this whole thing, why there were were no attempted phonecalls. Though, this article does offer ideas as to why that might have been http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...why_didn_t_the_passengers_phone_for_help.html

 

[big soft moose]

Probably not a great deal of mobile signal out in the south china sea or on the non populous bits of the malay pensinsula - so unles anyone had a sat phone that wouldn't have been a goer , its not really like flying over continental USA

 

[JonathanRyan]

There were early reports that relatives had called passengers' mobile phones and got ringing signals hours after the disappearance. They thought that meant that the phones were still working but were for some reason unanswered.

I suspect that phones don't work like that though I haven't seen an article refuting it.

 

[big soft moose]

if you call my mobile even when its turned off or out of signal it rings 3 times then goes to voicemail... the rinigng sound you hree on the line is generated by the service provider not by the actual handset

 

[neil_g]

personally i wouldnt put much stock in the ringing mobiles, it wouldnt be the first time mobile network did odd things especially internationally.

for example the OH (while both in the UK) can get a ringing tone yet i'll have no signal. or go straight to voicemail despite having signal etc.

 

[Byker28i]

An aside, I drove through that spot with my dad maybe 4 minutes before he crashed on the motorway

Did your dad crash a lot?

 

[Garry Edwards]

Have to agree.
Had the pilot not have been as good at his job as he was, then many more people would have been killed, both on the 'plane and in Kegworth.

Seems odd maybe that everyone in the front section died whilst the pilot & first officer survived.

Yes, although from memory they were both seriously injured. I didn't get into their bit, I think it actually struck a bit further back. There may have been some survivors in the front section but I didn't see any, the people I came across varied from dead to very dead. There were unnecessary delays, which angered me at the time. I had phoned 999 from my mobile, there were very few mobiles around at that time and the police operator was clearly out of her depth, she didn't believe me when I said that a plane had hit the embankment, she told me to go to the nearest emergency phone and call from there, which I flatly refused to do. I told her that it was just south of J24 and that we needed fire engines, ambulances and lights, but all she sent was a police car. There were initially 6 of us, mainly lorry drivers, plus the crews of the 2 airport fire engines, but we were ordered off by the police when they arrived and then there was no help at all until the first fire engines arrived. My car was just 3 weeks old at the time and I never managed to clean it up again properly.

 

[SarahLee]

I don't know the detail of the stories as I didn't read them , I just saw them on the rack as I paid for fuel at Tescos, but seriously are they privy to sources that the rest of the world don't have ? or are they simply full of crap ?

. . . after serious consideration I have to conclude that the second option is probably the most likely

Amongst all the wild theories, this one seems attractively simple

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/
.

I saw that yesterday and was actually going to post it here, but got tied up with something else
I've been trying not to speculate too much on this - I just don't want to be one of the people feeding the media frenzy and adding any more anguish to the families - but this story has really sucked me in and that's one of the simplest theories I've seen and the one closest to what I think most likely happened.

With the little we actually know as fact at the moment, I'm still just not seeing anything that really makes me believe it was a hi-jacking / terrorist attack.

 

[cambsno]

Hijacked would explain the weird flight decisions - especially if it were a 9/11 style hijack and the flight crew were killed leaving amateurs flying the plane. what happened next would be up for grabs but crashed it somewhere through inexpert handling would be a reasonable guess

As to why no one has claimed responsibility there are two options a) the entire cell concerned were on the plane and as they crashed it theres no one left to claim anything, or b) as someone mentioned earlier it was a rehersal for a more hi profile target (like hijacking an american jet over the antlantic) being carried out on a country with relatively lax security.

But this is just conjecture - don't know means don't know , we won't know anything conclusive until wreckage is found and maybe not even then

Don't see how it could be a rehearsal:

- It would alert authorities for future attempts making it harder
- Whats the point in rehearsing if you will be dead so can't use the experience!

Pilot appears to have practiced landings at remote airports according to press. My guess is the erratic flying could be the co-pilot fighting with the pilot (or vice versa) to regain control, then the pilot flew it too where he wanted it. My guess is it has crashed somewhere remote.