The virus. PPE. Part 1

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It has a handy new name now: COVID-19
 
LongLensPhotography said:
That's convenient. Death toll from COVID-19 is probably close to zero now.
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They've already changed it again, just to fool you!:
View: https://BANNED/robertson_lab/status/1227288799555788800


(For anyone who cares, the nomenclature story has been slightly misreported. The virologists are going with SARS-CoV-2 for the virus itself, while the disease is now COVID-19. It's like HIV and AIDS).
 
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nilagin said:
Just avoid Corbyn if he gets the virus.
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There's a zoonosis waiting to happen.
 
munch said:
True and this is where any statistics will fall down. There may also be people who have died of the virus, who have not been diagnosed. That still doesn't detract from the information we do have and how we use that. We can say based on the information we have corono virus has a current fatality rate of 2.37% NOT 20%
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It's not quite that simple, see e.g.:

https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20203

'At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude. Diagnosis of viral infection will precede recovery or death by days to weeks and the number of deaths should therefore be compared to the past case counts – accounting for this delay increasing the estimate of the case fatality rate. On the other hand, cases in official statistics are likely a severe underestimate of the total – accounting for this underestimate will decrease the case fatality rate. The time between diagnosis and death/recovery and the degree of underreporting will vary over time as well as between cities and countries. A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.'

Here's one attempt to do the stats:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

'We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of COVID-19 (previously termed 2019-nCoV) infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values. Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).'
 
JohnC6 said:
Maybe time for those holding shares in Travel companies and airlines to sell
https://www.ft.com/content/0f13e2d0-4297-11ea-abea-0c7a29cd66fe
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Requires subscription....


It will recover not long after the virus is over. Somebody will make a lot of money by buying them up on the cheap a couple months down the line. Of course not all companies may make it through if this gets bad enough. i.e. There is no way in hell I would book on a 2 week cruise or a flight to {near}-China.
 
LongLensPhotography said:
Requires subscription....


It will recover not long after the virus is over. Somebody will make a lot of money by buying them up on the cheap a couple months down the line. Of course not all companies may make it through if this gets bad enough. i.e. There is no way in hell I would book on a 2 week cruise or a flight to {near}-China.
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Strange. I was able to read the article but when I tried the link in my post just now ,as you say..Requires a subscription.Another article. It includes cruise lines too.

I wouldn't go on a cruise either..nor fly tbh. I don't think there could be a higher risk environment to catch anything going than a metal tube that flies..especially one that recirculates its air.lol.
https://www.investopedia.com/coronavirus-taking-toll-on-travel-stocks-4784024

This is a good one and takes a look at how SARS affected stocks https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrap...stocks-from-sars-to-coronavirus/#203b03c1482c

If this virus looks like it's getting a hold here I can see people stockpiling food in case they have to self-isolate.Milk would have to go in the freezer too. Have to be able to have a cuppa. :)
 
Retune said:
It's not quite that simple, '
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True, which is why I started my comments by mentioning statistics falling down. I was trying to simplify it using the data as presented, mainly to disprove that had a death rate of 20% based on that same data.

I could take the data you referenced and come up with a different answer, depending on how you interpret the variables.
 
Number of deaths fell 2 days running and number of infection reported also fell...hopefully it will keep falling.
 
Raymond Lin said:
Not of actual increase in cases, more they changed the way they count them. Around the world it hasn’t moved much.
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How do you change the way you count deaths?
 
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nilagin said:
How do you change the way you count deaths?
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From Ricardo's link:-

"There was also a huge increase in the number of cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed with the virus.
Hubei has started using a broader definition to diagnose people - which accounts for most of the rise in cases.
China sacked two top officials in Hubei province hours after the new figures were revealed."

Looks like the usual totalitarian principles are still alive and well - shoot the messenger !

I thought that diagnosis was quite a precise process, i.e. Laboratory tests on respiratory specimens and serum (part of your blood) to detect human coronaviruses. So what are the Chinese now doing to determine whether a patient has the infection ?
 
nilagin said:
No, that explains the change in the way diagnosed cases are counted, not deaths.
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I read they don’t count people who die without/before being tested and other similar ‘technical’ examples. Maybe they still counted these exceptions but didn’t add the to the statistics?
 
What baffles me is, the fact that anyone with even the basic school boy knowledge of virology or immunology,
could even consider the fact that this could have been contained.
It was already "too late" by the time it was detected.
 
Cobra said:
What baffles me is, the fact that anyone with even the basic school boy knowledge of virology or immunology,
could even consider the fact that this could have been contained.
It was already "too late" by the time it was detected.
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Though I think the answer would be that attempts to contain may slow its spread while vaccine is developed.
 
Cobra said:
What baffles me is, the fact that anyone with even the basic school boy knowledge of virology or immunology,
could even consider the fact that this could have been contained.
It was already "too late" by the time it was detected.
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sphexx said:
Though I think the answer would be that attempts to contain may slow its spread while vaccine is developed.
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And what has always baffled me is the frankly poor personal hygiene habits of oh too many people! (NB in broad terms I mean here the UK, other countries and cultures will vary ;) )

Such poor habits are IMO a major contributor to the spread of any infectious agent. Note ~ the adverts for sprays to counter surface deposits that can be transfered should be more explicit about use of hankies.............................bring back the old MoI B&W TV AD "Coughs & sneezes spread diseases", I say ;) :banghead:
 
sphexx said:
Though I think the answer would be that attempts to contain may slow its spread while vaccine is developed.
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Yes I agree they are trying to do what they can now,

But I'm referring back to the very beginning, where each person that was identified as "infected"
Unless they were hermits they would have already come in contact with a dozen or so people. or more.
 
Heard somewhere that a vaccine is likely to take about 18 months to develop and produce in any significant quantity, by which time it (the virus) will have been around the world 4 times (probably been round twice already!) and those likely to be killed by it will have been.
 
Box Brownie said:
And what has always baffled me is the frankly poor personal hygiene habits of oh too many people! (NB in broad terms I mean here the UK, other countries and cultures will vary ;) )

Such poor habits are IMO a major contributor to the spread of any infectious agent. Note ~ the adverts for sprays to counter surface deposits that can be transfered should be more explicit about use of hankies.............................bring back the old MoI B&W TV AD "Coughs & sneezes spread diseases", I say ;) :banghead:
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Walking my dogs around South London streets about 30 years ago I quickly learned not to walk past queues of school kids at bus stops or risk catching their casual spitting. I *think* they have picked it up from footballers on TV :(. I also discovered how much food (mostly chicken) was spread around :(.
 
sphexx said:
I *think* they have picked it up from footballers on TV :(.
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I'm convinced of that too!
I don't watch football but I remember going back a few years when it started to become a problem the reason given was that it was hard to swallow when you were running hard, or some such.
I've no idea if the habit continues ( among footballers) to this day, but I certainly hope not....
 
Cobra said:
I'm convinced of that too!
I don't watch football but I remember going back a few years when it started to become a problem the reason given was that it was hard to swallow when you were running hard, or some such.
I've no idea if the habit continues ( among footballers) to this day, but I certainly hope not....
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I don’t watch football either but I’ve seen clips in news programs showing the behaviour. I wonder if people have started blowing their noses with their fingers (ie no hankie) they do ‘abroad’?
 
And on the subject of hygiene, I found recently that no one uses nail brushes any more since it’s difficult to find them in chemists or supermarkets. I had to resort to Amazon for one.
 
sphexx said:
I’ve seen clips in news programs showing the behaviour.
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Yep that's same source as me.

sphexx said:
I wonder if people have started blowing their noses with their fingers (ie no hankie) they do ‘abroad’?
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I've seen dirty bastids people block one nostril with a finger and blow snot out the other :rolleyes:
 
sphexx said:
I found recently that no one uses nail brushes any more
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Even worse, I've seen people in works Loo's exit without so much as going near the sink :(
 
Cobra said:
Yep that's same source as me.


I've seen dirty bastids people block one nostril with a finger and blow snot out the other :rolleyes:
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In my enforced sojourn in Arabia many years ago the really skilful ones used a kind of blow and two-finger pinch-flick, sheer artistry :).
 
sphexx said:
the really skilful ones used a kind of blow and two-finger pinch-flick, sheer artistry :).
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I shouldn't laugh but ... :LOL:

All this just goes to show how fast virus get spread.

Don't get me wrong, I never wrapped either of my kids up in cotton wool but the world just seems a less hygienic place these days.
Is it because we are just evolving this way or is it "outside influences" from other cultures? < controversial >
 
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A workmate went on a cruise last year, as passengers entered the dining areas for breakfast and dinner each day, they were told to use the hand sanitizing gel to clean their hands beforehand, just as they do in hospitals. The only people who tried their best to avoid this were an oriental family, they had to be stopped from entering until they used the sanitizer. He reckons they would spit quite often too.
 
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